Air travel safety is certainly in the spotlight right now. And while tragedies do occur in the air, it’s important to note that air travel is still an abundantly safe mode of transportation. In fact, it’s only getting safer. According to the International Air Transport Association, between 2011 and 2015, there was one accident for every 456,000 flights. But between 2020 and 2024, there was just one accident for every 810,000 flights.

While airlines do all they can to make flying safe, there is one threat to aviation that even they can’t do much about: space junk. 

A group of researchers from the University of British Columbia recently published their findings in Scientific Reports, showing that while the chances of space trash hitting a plane remain small, it’s a rising risk—with consequences that could be “catastrophic.” 

According to the report, a rocket or other space debris has a 0.8 percent chance per year of ending up in the “highest-density regions” around major airports. However, “the report notes that “this rate rises to 26 percent for larger but still busy areas of airspace, such as that found in the northeastern United States, northern Europe, or around major cities in the Asia-Pacific region.”

The authors recognize that air space can’t simply be closed as it would be an economic strain on large regions for unknown periods of time. This, they add, “puts national authorities in a dilemma—to close airspace or not—with safety and economic implications either way.”

The authors explain that this exact scenario played out in 2022 when a 20-ton rocket reentered the Earth’s atmosphere. It was predicted to land over southern Europe, leading French and Spanish authorities to close parts of their airspace. The event caused 645 aircraft delays and diverted some planes already set for landing. It also caused neighboring nations (specifically Italy, Portugal, and Greece) to see an increase in airline traffic, creating yet another risk. Luckily for all, the rocket eventually landed in the Pacific.

The issue of space debris hitting planes is compounded by the fact that we have far more airplanes in the skies than ever before. The researchers note that the number of daily flights has almost doubled since 2000. At the same time, the number of “trackable objects in orbit” has more than doubled in the last decade, with large reentries occurring almost every week.

And it wouldn’t take much to damage a plane. The researchers explain that a one-gram piece of debris could “damage an aircraft, particularly if it strikes a windshield or is ingested by an engine,” while a 9-gram steel cube could “perforate aircraft fuselages,” and debris with mass greater than 300 grams “could result in a catastrophic incident, i.e., total aircraft loss.” 

This, they add, showcases the need for answers. But instead of ending space missions or grounding flights, they offer this advice: All space missions should be required to make controlled reentry into the ocean.

“Uncontrolled rocket body reentries are a design choice, not a necessity. With engines that can reignite and improved mission designs, operators can conduct controlled reentries, directing the rocket body into a remote area of the ocean away from people and aircraft,” the researchers write in their discussion. However, fewer than 35 percent of launches currently conduct controlled rocket body reentries, and the authors contend that if controlled reentries were universally used, risks would significantly decrease.

“Policy and legal changes are needed now, before a terrible accident occurs, and before more disruption results from sudden airspace closures.”