Israel’s national earthquake warning system, “Truaa,” which became operational in 2022, has positioned the country alongside other advanced nations that utilize early warning systems for earthquakes. However, one of the main challenges in such systems is balancing speed and accuracy: a quick warning may save lives, but if it is based on limited data, it may be wrong and result in false alarms and unnecessary injuries.

A new study conducted by Dr. Yonat Zwebner, a consumer behavior expert at the Arison School of Business at Reichman University, in collaboration with Dr. Ran Nof and Dr. Gony Biran from the Geological Survey of Israel, examined this trade-off between urgency and accuracy. The study analyzed statistical data, assessed the potential for injuries in the event of a warning, and conducted a large-scale survey to gauge public attitudes on the issue. The study is published in the journal Natural Hazards.

The study addresses a critical challenge faced by earthquake warning systems: in the initial moments following an earthquake, there is significant uncertainty about its magnitude, which gradually decreases as time passes. Therefore, striking the right balance between the urgency of issuing a warning and ensuring accuracy is critical.

The main findings indicate that when weighing urgency against necessity, urgency is the preferred priority. There is a clear advantage to providing warnings as quickly as possible, even if some may be triggered by earthquakes that ultimately cause no significant damage. Injuries resulting from responses to early warnings were found to be negligible compared to earthquake damage without early warning.

The Israeli public also supports faster warnings—a survey conducted following the 2023 earthquakes in Turkey, which were felt across many parts of Israel, found that 63% of respondents preferred to receive warnings even in the event of minor earthquakes, simply to be prepared for the possibility of a major seismic event.

In addition, the study recommends considering reducing the magnitude threshold for earthquake warnings. Lowering this threshold would provide more time for response, ensuring timely alerts while minimizing the risk of injuries, without significantly increasing the likelihood of unnecessary warnings.

Dr. Zwebner says, “The study presents an immediate policy recommendation to consider lowering the magnitude threshold for earthquake alerts, giving the public more time to respond. Additionally, it emphasizes the importance of investing in public training and preparedness exercises to enhance response effectiveness and prevent ‘alert fatigue,’ which could lead to public disregard for the warning system.”