Key events
Neil Findlay, a former Labour MSP, has resigned from the party over the disability benefit cuts.
In an open letter to Keir Starmer posted on social media, he says government claims that the cuts are motivated by the desire to get more sick and disabled people back into work are “lies”. He goes on:
Of course people who can work should work – no one is questioning that – but for my relatives, friends and neighbours, and your constituents who have the misfortune to suffer from a chronic, debilitating, long-term condition that leaves them bed-bound, unable to leave their home or crushed by mental illness, these cuts will not motivate them to get back to work, it will instead scare and humiliate them and strip them of their dignity and self respect and for some it will send them to an early grave. The blame for this will lie squarely with you and the sycophants within your party who passively support these dreadful cuts.
Reform UK achieves highest polling for Scottish election
Severin Carrell
Severin Carrell is the Guardian’s Scotland editor.
Reform UK has recorded its highest polling figure for a Scottish election, with a poll by Survation putting its support at 17% in the constituency vote – comfortably ahead of the Scottish Conservatives and six points behind Labour.
The poll for the public relations firm Quantum Communications also found that Reform UK was three points ahead of the Tories in the regional list vote on 16%, with Scottish Labour on 20%.
Because of Holyrood’s proportional voting system, that implies Reform UK could win 14 Scottish parliament seats in May 2026.
Those would most likely come via the regional lists, where any vote higher than 5% puts a party in contention for seats, but at 17% in the constituency vote, some first past the post seats would also come into play.
Survation found the Scottish National party will comfortably win, with 34% of the constituency vote and 29% of the list vote. The Diffley Partnership estimates that would give the SNP 55 seats against 19 for Labour and 17 for the Tories overall.
Those data confirm evidence from the Scottish Election Survey that Reform UK is splitting the non-nationalist vote, despite having no Scottish leader and only a handful of council seats – all gained by sitting councillors defecting.
It has yet to win any elections in Scotland yet appears to be taking significant votes from the Tories but also some from Labour, and a few in the margins from the Liberal Democrats and SNP.
Prof Nicola McEwen, director of the Centre for Public Policy at the University of Glasgow, said that until now Scotland seemed to have bucked the Reform UK trend in England and Wales.
Although small numbers in the sample point to the need for caution, 16 to 24-year-olds represent Reform’s strongest voter group by age.
This is not unique to Scotland. Across the UK and Europe, far right parties today appear able to capture support from young people to levels normally associated with the far left.
Survation has posted details of the poll on social media.
NEW: Reform Records Highest Support Ever in a Scottish Poll
Constituency vote share:
SNP: 34% (-1)
Labour: 23% (+1)
Reform UK: 17% (+4)
Conservatives: 12% (-2)
Liberal Democrats: 8% (n/c)
Green: 4% (-2)
Alba: 1% (n/c)Fwk: 6-13 March 2025
(Changes vs January 2025) pic.twitter.com/VshOqG0bR4— Survation. (@Survation) March 19, 2025
Aside from Reform UK’s rise, the broader electoral landscape remains largely stable, with the SNP maintaining an 11-point lead over Labour, marking a recovery from their polling lows from a year ago. pic.twitter.com/2em5jXgUWd
— Survation. (@Survation) March 19, 2025
Peer who led government NHS review failed to declare shares in health firms
The independent peer Lord Darzi, a senior adviser to the government on the NHS, failed to officially declare shareholdings in healthcare companies worth hundreds of thousands of pounds, David Conn reports.
Ministers may extend DLA for children so that parents still get it for period after death of sick child, Timms says
The government is considering extending disability living allowance for children so that, if a parent has given up work to care for the child and he or she dies, the benefit keeps being paid for a period.
In an interview with Sky News, Stephen Timms, the social security and disability minister, said:
One thing we are looking at is, and we’re taking legal advice about this at the moment, the possibility of extending disability living allowance for children, the benefit that’s paid when children are very unwell, for a period after the child’s death.
Just to support parents during what otherwise [is] obviously a terribly, terribly difficult time, but also a financially difficult time for them. That’s a possibility that we are looking at at the moment.
Tighter rules for Pip won’t exclude all people claiming as result of severe anxiety, says DWP minister Stephen Timms
In his interview on Times Radio this morning, Stephen Timms, the social security and disability minister, said that the government’s decision to tighten the eligibility requirments for Pip would not exclude all people claiming as a result of severe anxiety.
Asked if people with anxiety would no longer by able to claim Pip under the new rules, Timms replied:
No, it depends what the effect of the condition is on people’s wellbeing, and the indicators are all published and set out.
So if you have difficulties doing certain things, then you get points on the Pip assessment. And the number of points you get determine how much Pip you get.
The Guardian has today published this article by Brian, a single father with mental health issues who receives Pip, who explains why he is alarmed about the disability benefit cuts announced yesterday.
Starmer claims no one with ‘condition that means they’ll never be able to work’ will lose out from disability benefit cuts
In his article in the Times about the disability benefit cuts, Keir Starmer makes a bold claim – that nobody with a condition meaning they can never work will lose out. He says:
Our reforms are guided by three principles. First, if you can work, you should. Second, if you want to work, the government should support you to make that a reality. Third, if you will never be able to work because of your illness or disability, the state should help you to get by with security, dignity and respect.
So, nobody with a condition that means they will never be able to work will lose out from our changes. Nor will they have to endure the indignity and fear of endless reassessment – that requirement will be scrapped.
If Starmer can persuade disabled people that this is true, then much of the opposition to what the government is doing would diminish. But, from the reaction we saw yesterday, it is clear that disabled people, and the charities that represent them, do not believe that this is correct.
Most of the savings are going to come from the government tightening eligibility for Pip (the personal independence payment), a disability benefit that covers the extra costs people incur because they are disabled and that is paid to people both in work and out of work. Yesterday the Resolution Foundation thinktank said these changes would cost up to 1.2 million people between £4,200 and £6,300.
Speaking on the Today programme this morning, Ruth Curtice, the foundation’s chief executive, said:
The government haven’t given us a number for how many will be affected, and because they’ve made quite a detailed change to the system, we can’t tell exactly who will be affected.
I think it would have been good if the government had told us yesterday, but given what they’ve told us about how much they’re planning, the Resolution Foundation estimate it’s around a million people who are losing their entitlement to Pip completely ..
You can think of £5bn as small or large, depending on your perspective – getting those from a million individuals means that for those individuals, it’s really significant income loss.
Minister refuses to rule out further benefit cuts amid backlash over disability benefits being reduced by £5bn
Good morning. Keir Starmer and his team got through the announcement yesterday of disability benefit cuts worth £5bn without total Labour meltdown – no one has resigned from the government yet – but backbenchers were broadly sullen and unpersuaded, and the battle to implement these changes is only just starting.
Here is our overnight story, by Kiran Stacey, Pippa Crerar and Jessica Elgot.
Patrick Butler, the Guardian’s social policy editor, has an analysis here.
And Archie Bland has a good overall upsum of where we are in his First Edition briefing.
Starmer has written an article for the Times defending the cuts (more on that soon), and Stephen Timms, the social security and disability minister, has been giving interviews this morning. His first was on Times Radio, where Kate McCann quickly highlighted one of the reasons why this is perilous territory for Labour. Timms said that, even with these cuts, the welfare bill was still going up; but these measures made the rising cost “sustainable”, he argued. So McCann asked if the government was ruling out further benefit cuts in future. Timms replied:
The proposals were set out in full yesterday. We’re going to be tabling legislation to implement a number of those changes. We’re going to be consulting over a full 12-week period on some of the proposals that we made yesterday. And we’re determined to get this absolutely right.
McCann tried again:
Can we just be very clear, though – are you ruling out coming back for more from the welfare bill?
And Timms replied:
Who knows what will happen in the next five years?
Indeed. And we’re not going to find out today. But we will hear what Starmer has to say in next three hours, when Starmer takes PMQs.
Here is the agenda for the day.
Morning: Matt Hancock, the former Tory health secretary, gives evidence to the Covid inquiry as part of its module looking at PPE procurement.
Noon: Keir Starmer faces Kemi Badenoch at PMQs.
After 12.30pm: MPs debate Lords amendments to the bill putting up employer national insurance.
3pm: Martin Lewis, the consumer champion and founder of MoneySavingExpert.com, gives evidence to the Commons energy committee.
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